Is Seasonality Finally Back? A Look at Real Estate Trends from 2020–2026

If you’ve been keeping an eye on real estate headlines lately, you’ve probably seen statements like:

• “Interest rates drop below 6%”
• “Lowest interest rates in three years”
• “Inventory rising again”

At first glance, it’s easy to assume the recent uptick in real estate activity is all about interest rates dropping. But that’s only part of the story.

How COVID Broke Real Estate Seasonality

Before COVID, the real estate market—especially here in the Seattle area—followed predictable seasonal rhythms. March, April, and May were peak months for listings and sales, while the holiday season was typically slow.

Then COVID hit.

Exceptionally low interest rates created a wave of buying power that brought new buyers into the market—many who previously thought homeownership was out of reach. Demand surged nonstop for roughly two years. Seasonality disappeared entirely as buyers competed at any time of year.

2023: When the Market Hit the Brakes

In 2023, the market flipped again.

Interest rates doubled almost overnight, eventually reaching the 8% range—levels not seen in decades. Buyers suddenly lost massive amounts of purchasing power. One week you could afford $800k, and the next week only $700k.

Sellers reacted slowly, as they often do. But the damage was done. Interest rates—not seasonality—were steering the market.

By late 2023, rates settled into the mid‑6% range. Still high, but stable. And stability matters. When rates swing daily, buyers freeze because they don’t know what they can afford. That’s why 2023 became a tough year for many agents.

2024: A Return to Something More “Normal”

In 2024, something interesting happened: the Seattle market started behaving… normal again.

January saw more listings and more buyers—just like it did pre‑COVID. Rates hovered in the 6% range for months. As stability set in, seasonality slowly returned. We saw:

• More homes listed early in the year
• More buyers entering the market
• Prices rising until June, then leveling off
• A typical holiday slowdown

In many ways, 2024 was uneventful from a market standpoint. No major rate shocks. No unexpected inventory surges. But it was difficult for agents who expected rates to fall dramatically and didn’t continue educating or prospecting among their clients.

2025: Strong Start, Then Softening

Entering 2025, interest rates were stable, prices were stable, and demand was strong. Seasonality was fully visible again, with the first five months showing the largest growth in inventory and pricing.

Tariffs were eventually felt in the market, slowing activity later in the year. Still, the pattern remained consistent with pre‑COVID trends. Prices peaked in June, softened slightly in July, and held steady for the remainder of the year.

The year ended with a 3% increase in home prices, driven mostly by gains in the first half of the year. A government shutdown and economic uncertainty contributed to an unusually slow fourth quarter.

2026 Begins with a Jolt of Optimism

Then came 2026.

A major announcement from Trump committed $200 billion to bond purchases, pushing bond prices up and nudging interest rates down. While $200 billion sounds significant, it represents only about 1.4%–2% of the U.S. mortgage market—so the actual rate drop was modest (around 10–25 basis points).

But the bigger impact was psychological.

Media outlets reported rates dipping below 6%, even if only temporarily. Positive headlines woke buyers up at a time when many were already re‑engaging due to seasonality. The result? Increased showings and more multiple‑offer situations.

So Where Are We Headed?

It’s still early, but the trend is clear:

• Buyers are returning
• Sellers are gaining confidence
• Seasonality is back
• Stability is creating momentum

My hope is that rates drop—and stay—below 6%. This would make homeownership more accessible, encourage more sellers to list, and help increase inventory in an already tight market.